The Fight for the Republican Nomination

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Questions have swarmed the political sphere, as Americans of all parties have wondered just who is going to run as the Republican nominee in 2024. The default answer is the former president, Donald Trump. However, others posited that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis or former Vice-President Mike Pence. And while 2024 is years away, a new poll by Morning Consult may help answer that question. 

The poll surveyed 1,999 registered voters and found that 67 percent of Republican voters want Trump to run in 2024, with 29 percent saying he shouldn’t. Trump’s approval rating is also high among Republicans, with 87 percent of registered Republicans viewing him favorably. By contrast, only 17 percent of respondents view him negatively. 

Though Trump is the most popular among his fellow Republicans, he is not without opposition. Trump’s return is not popular among most Americans, with 55 percent of Americans opposing his return. A quarter of the Republicans who oppose Trump’s return favor former Vice-President Mike Pence. 

While unexpected, Pence does have name recognition, experience, and the experience to challenge Trump. And his polling is not too bad among registered voters. YouGov’s polling shows that, on average, Pence has a low approval rating. As of January of this year, the latest data YouGov has available, only 42 percent of registered voters approve of him. But not all of those people who approve of him are Republicans. 

Fundamentally, the issue of understanding whether or not Trump will gain the nominee depends on party identification. Trump can be as unpopular and hated by the majority of Americans as humanly possible. Trump never received an approval rating above 50 percent and still won the presidency and made significant changes to the political system. So long as Republicans continue to see Trump as their savior, he will continue to control the party and its future.

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